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quarta-feira, 30 de julho de 2008
OGE Rectificado: Despesas Estimadas 2008-2011
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terça-feira, 29 de julho de 2008
Timor-Leste Petroleum Fund: A Case for Caution
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(1) The Government is unable to spend the revenue currently available under the Petroleum Fund Law's sustainable income formula. Government spending has increased sharply in recent years, but remains well below what has been planned. In 2006/7, only 49% (US$181 million) of the Budget was spent (and only 16% of the capital portion). The expenditure rate increased slightly under the recent 2007 six-month Transition Budget, to 55%. The 2008 Budget is 6% larger than in 2006/7 (US$348 million), and the Government plans to add as much as US$190 million at the Mid-Year Review. Budget execution to date suggests that expenditures on a commitment basis are increasing, but cash outlays are once again likely to fall far short of appropriations and to remain well below the sustainable spending level (US$434 million for 2008).
The reasons for these chronic expenditure shortfalls are well-known: they stem principally from the country's inadequate budget planning/execution systems and poor implementation capacity (both in Government and the private sector). Since independence, Timor-Leste has enjoyed abundant international aid and rapidly-growing budgets. Successive governments have promised to deliver services to the population, but have been frustrated by weak capacity. In turn, these contributed to civil unrest (which has further compromised Budget execution). Per capita income in the non-oil economy is about 4 percent lower in real terms than it was in 2002, which suggests that poverty is increasing. Until planning and implementation capacity is strengthened it will be difficult to spend current sustainable income---Iet alone any additional appropriations.
(2) The Petroleum Fund Law already allows for transfers from the Fund to the Budget in excess of the estimated sustainable income (see attached Box for an explanation of the sustainable income concept). Transfers in excess of sustainable income are permitted as long as the Government provides Parliament with "a detailed explanation of why it is in the long-term interests of Timor-Leste to transfer from the Petroleum Fund an amount in excess of the Estimated Sustainable Income."1 Submitting the issue to public debate ensures transparency and adequate consideration, and is an important aspect of the good governance practices for which the Petroleum Fund is renowned2.
A change to the Petroleum Fund Law would present Timor-Leste with reputational and governance risks.
The Petroleum Fund is a credit to Timor-Leste, creating confidence at home and abroad that the Government is serious about good governance. The Fund's procedures-publication of quarterly and annual reports, mandatory external audits, a Consultative Council, an Investment Advisory Board-have been designed to ensure honesty, transparency, and due diligence in the use of the revenues. The design is based on lessons learned from other countries, where petroleum revenues have amounted to a distortionary curse rather than a blessing. It is tempting to accelerate spending on transfers like pensions or social supplements, which are potentially quick-disbursing, visible, and can be targeted to the poor. These instruments are no panacea, however. If expenditure outruns the capacity of the country's systems and skills, waste and misappropriation are an inevitable consequence.
(3) Too rapid an expansion in oil-derived expenditure could have perverse and damaging macroeconomic effects. The sustainable income formula (and the investment of revenues overseas) helps mute of the emergence of severe supply bottlenecks (in Timor-Leste's case, a tiny private sector, limited port facilities and a lack of skilled labor). Increased spending is likely to exacerbate these constraints, increasing the rate of inflation and raising the real exchange rate. This could well create a cost structure that would destroy the competitiveness of Timor-Leste's non-oil economy (the phenomenon known as 'Dutch disease'). The cost of goods and services is already considerably higher than in nex1-door Indonesia.
In conclusion, caution is advised before making changes to the Petroleum Fund Law. The availability of funds is not a major constraint for Government today---current spending remains far below budgeted amounts (about 55-60% of total funds), and well below sustainable income levels. Expenditure should and will increase as planning and implementation capacity increases. Once absorptive capacity has increased, raising the sustainable income limit may be justified. Rather than focus on this issue now, the Government and its development partners need to concentrate on enhancing capacity (including by contracting-out), and on ensuring that available revenues are well spent. This, not promises of additional spending, is what will improve Timorese livelihoods.
1 Article 9, Petroleum Fund Law.2 In a survey by the Peterson Institute that evaluated the structure and operation of 32 sovereign wealth funds, Timor-Leste's Petroleum Fund was ranked third best in terms of its governance arrangements and management performance.
SEARCH FoundationLevel 3, Suite 3B, 110 Kippax St,SURRY HILLS NSW 2010AustraliaPh: 02 9211 4164; Fax: 02 9211 1407 http://www.search.org.au/ ABN 63 050 096 976 promoting democracy, social justice and environmental sustainability This email is provided by the SEARCH Foundation as an information service. Any views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Foundation. This email is intended for the recipient only. The information (including all attachments) contained in this message may contain confidential and/or privileged material. If you are not the intended recipient you must not reproduce or distribute any part of this email, disclose its contents to any other party, or take action in reliance on it. If you have received this email in error please contact the sender immediately and delete the message from any computer.
segunda-feira, 28 de julho de 2008
“Fundo de Estabilização Económica é transparente e assenta na legislação!”
Isso depois de ouvir os ministérios relevantes e tomar em consideração a situação económica do País.Finalmente, existe ainda um outro Decreto-Lei que especifica os detalhes da implementação.“Houve tanto debate no Parlamento Nacional, durante mais de mês e meio, portanto, como é que se pode dizer que é um Fundo secreto? Pelo contrário, todo o processo é absolutamente transparente e assente na legislação, sendo que no que se prende com o aprovisionamento é aplicada a lei vigente, ou seja, não inventámos nada”, sustenta a Ministra das Finanças.
Alguns deputados dos partidos da oposição ao Parlamento Nacional alegaram que o Governo não satisfaz os critérios do Fundo Petrolífero ao retirar dinheiro que excede o chamado Rendimento Sustentável Estimado. Emília Pires recorda que no dia 23 de Junho o Governo enviou para o Parlamento Nacional o relatório da “Deloit”, que indica exatamente o contrário.E acrescenta que no dia 4 de Julho o Governo enviou outro relatório justificando porque é que o Governo vai retirar mais uma quantia que excede o que está determinado como rendimento sustentável, apontando interesses de longo prazo de Timor-Leste.“Portanto, não percebo porque vêm agora dizer isto. Talvez não leiam os documentos que nós enviamos...”, concluiu a Ministra das Finanças.O Fundo de Estabilização Económica, com um capital de 240 Milhões de USD, consiste numa importante ferramenta que o Governo criou para fazer face à recessão económica que se faz sentir a nível mundial, nomeadamente a crise alimentar e o aumento do custo dos alimentos em todo o mundo e, bem assim, combater os efeitos negativos que o aumento do preço dos combustíveis e dos materiais de construção civil possa reflectir a nível nacional.
A Cimeira Internacional sobre a Situação Alimentar Global, que reuniu 180 países recentemente em Roma, concluiu que no médio prazo os preços dos alimentos irão manter-se nos níveis actuais. Ou seja, o preço dos bens de consumo vai continuar elevado, o que tem provocado impactos negativos em vários países, na vida e na saúde da população.
Por outro lado, o aumento do preço dos materiais de construção é também motivo de grande preocupação, porque pode atrasar ou impedir os planos de desenvolvimento do Governo e desencorajar o investimento por parte do sector privado.
Para reduzir o impacto dos preços dos alimentos e dos materiais de construção na economia nacional e na população de Timor-Leste o Governo criou o Fundo de Estabilização Económica, que tem três objectivos principais: assegurar o abastecimento de bens e a segurança alimentar; estabilizar os preços, através de intervenção no mercado; e assegurar o abastecimento de materiais de construção civil. Assim, o Governo pode permitir o abastecimento de mercadorias e produtos essenciais a preços razoáveis e garantir a continuação do processo de desenvolvimento. O Governo está numa situação em que não precisa de esperar o apoio de urgência dos parceiros de desenvolvimento enquanto a população sofre! *
sexta-feira, 25 de julho de 2008
Orçamento Rectificado do RDTL
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terça-feira, 22 de julho de 2008
Emerging East Asia's Growth to Moderate as Inflation Threat Looms, Says ADB
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The region's slowing yet solid growth outlook remains vulnerable to a higher-than-expected spike in inflation, protracted slowdown in the US and any further tremors in global financial markets, says the July issue of Asia Economic Monitor (AEM).
It warns that core inflation, a measure of price increase that excludes food and energy costs, is rising across the region - signaling that a more broad-based second-round price effect may be underway.
Even as growth moderates, there are little signs of price pressures, fuelled by high energy and food costs, subsiding. Inflation is expected to rise to 6.3%, more than double the rate of the past ten-year average inflation. This has serious implications as the average household in the region spends over fifty percent of its monthly expenditure on food and fuel.
"Rising inflation is a serious threat to the region’s sustained, strong growth as high import costs of food and fuel threaten to trigger a price/wage spiral, unleashing more inflation," says Jong-Wha Lee, Head of ADB's Office of Regional Economic Integration (OREI).
Economic growth in the People's Republic of China (PRC), the region's economic powerhouse, will slow to 9.9% in 2008 and 9.7% in 2009 from a torrid 11.9% in 2007 on the back of a gradual appreciation of the yuan, tightening policies and weakening external demand.
Growth in members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expected to ease by one percentage point to 5.5% in 2008, according to the semiannual AEM, which covers the 10 members of ASEAN; the PRC; Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China.
The region's policymakers are caught in the pincer grips of slowing growth and rising inflation.
The report warns that despite many economies facing prospects of slower growth, failure to act firmly to rein in rising prices may lead to repeating the mistakes industrialized nations made prior to the Great Inflation of the 1970s.
To douse inflationary flames, many monetary authorities have begun tightening in recent months. But the report says many of them remain behind the curve due to country-specific constraints and weak global economic outlook. The key to anchoring future inflationary expectations is to prevent second-round price effects from working their way through economies.
AEM says limited currency flexibility across much of emerging East Asia has also tied the hands of monetary authorities in their efforts to combat inflation. In some countries, the gradual pace of appreciation has fueled anticipation of further appreciation, spur speculative capital inflows, support the already strong liquidity growth and add further inflationary pressure.
"Allowing more exchange rate flexibility can help mitigate imported inflation and at the same time reduce the cost of sterilization," says Mr. Lee. "Greater currency flexibility will also give more wiggle room to monetary authorities."
Economies with healthy fiscal positions may consider carefully designed fiscal support to cushion the poor and vulnerable from the impact of rising food and fuel prices, the report recommends. But it adds that administrative controls to tame inflation through subsidies and price-fixing will lead to problems later.
It adds that more efficient and liquid financial markets will help channel capital flows into more productive use and result in better management of the region's massive foreign exchange reserves.
AEM analyzes emerging East Asia's economic growth, financial and corporate sector restructuring, and emerging policy issues. AEM is available on OREI's Asia Regional Information Center (ARIC) web site.
Emerging East Asia to Post Strong Growth in 2006, Says ADB
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“The region has adjusted well to a challenging first half characterized by high energy costs, persistent inflationary pressures, tighter monetary conditions, and financial volatility,” says Masahiro Kawai, head of ADB’s Office of Regional Economic Integration, which produces the Asia Economic Monitor (AEM), available at aric.adb.org
“There was a revival of external demand in the first half of the year and domestic demand is also now strengthening in several economies. Together these factors will help drive growth in the second half.”
2006 will be the third consecutive year of average GDP growth above 7% for emerging East Asia, which comprises the 10 ASEAN countries; People’s Republic of China (PRC); Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea (Korea); and Taipei,China. Together, these economies posted 7.2% growth in 2005, and 7.9% in 2004. The AEM forecasts 6.9% growth for emerging East Asia in 2007 on an anticipated easing of growth in the US, Japan, and PRC.
The outlook for the PRC economy is a key element of the region’s prospects. AEM forecasts GDP in the PRC will grow a strong 10.1% this year and 9.0% in 2007. Importantly for the rest of emerging East Asia, PRC imports are expected to rebound from exceptionally low growth in 2005.
PRC demand, with the global rebound in IT and improving domestic demand, is expected to propel growth in the three newly industrialized economies (NIEs) - Korea; Hong Kong, China; and Taipei,China. GDP growth in the NIEs is forecast at 5.1% in 2006, up from 4.5% in 2005.
ASEAN economies can expect steady GDP growth of 5.5% in 2006, reflecting the stable external outlook, with slight variations up or down across economies, according to AEM. ASEAN growth is forecast to rise slightly to 5.7% in 2007 as Indonesia recovers from the effects of its August 2005 mini-financial crisis. (Country assessments start on page 38 of AEM.)
The broadly favorable outlook for the region is subject to two types of risks. Near-term cyclical risks would include a sharp fall in external demand, faster-than-expected correction of an overheating PRC economy, higher-than-expected energy prices, and a significant deterioration in global financial conditions.
Deeper structural, low probability but high impact risks would include a sudden and disruptive adjustment of the global payments imbalances and the outbreak of an avian flu pandemic.
Against the backdrop of robust growth and higher inflation, emerging East Asia’s policy options for managing near-term risks comprise a combination of further monetary tightening - through interest rate hikes or currency appreciation, or both - and, in some cases, additional efforts to narrow fiscal deficits and reduce public debt. For example, in the PRC, both interest rate hikes to cool domestic demand and currency appreciation to address external imbalances are appropriate. At the same time, increasing exposure of banks to real estate in some economies needs close monitoring and appropriate measures to reduce risks, AEM says.
To address deeper vulnerabilities, the region’s policy priorities should be to boost domestic demand - consumption in the PRC and investment in most other economies, increase exchange rate flexibility, improve the region’s energy efficiency, and prepare for the possibility of an avian flu pandemic.
“The strengths of emerging East Asia’s economies and the risks they face are relatively clear,” says Mr. Kawai. “With sound policy decisions the region should be able to maintain its strong growth and continue setting the trend for rapid development and poverty reduction.”
Timor-Leste: Parceiros de desenvolvimento dão «luz verde» a estratégia para combater pobreza
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Combater a Pobreza em Timor - Leste
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quinta-feira, 17 de julho de 2008
ONU diz que pobreza cresce em países menos desenvolvidos
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No entanto, este progresso econômico não representa avanços em matéria social, pois o número de pobres que dispõem de menos de US$ 2 por dia para cobrirem suas necessidades básicas aumentou para 581 milhões ao invés de diminuir.
As informações dão mais ênfase à "pobreza absoluta", ou seja, àquelas pessoas que vivem com menos de US$ 1 por dia - o que representava 36% da população em 2006, frente a 44% em 1994.
Nos casos de crescimento mais espetacular, estes foram apoiados pela exportação de matérias-primas, sobretudo de petróleo e minerais, assim como pelo aumento dos fluxos de capitais, pela ajuda internacional e pelo alívio da dívida externa para uma parte deles, explicou.
O crescimento destes países "não se baseou na melhora de sua capacidade produtiva nem na geração de emprego", lamentou Supachai, que lembrou que os países mais pobres foram os mais afetados pela crise de alimentos causada pelo aumento do preço de vários produtos básicos no mercado internacional. Esta situação acentua "a marginalização" dos países, que em muitos casos passaram de exportadores de alimentos a importadores líquidos em conseqüência do pouco investimento no setor agrícola. Assim, ao invés de reduzir gradualmente a dependência de sua economia das exportações de matérias-primas, os países menos desenvolvidos agora são mais dependentes delas do que no início desta década. Estas exportações representaram 77% do total no período entre 2004 e 2006, ao invés do 59% entre 2000 e 2002. Supachai afirmou que esta tendência é observada particularmente na África, pois "os países asiáticos menos adiantados se diversificaram para os produtos manufaturados", enquanto as pequenas ilhas "dependem das exportações de serviços, que são altamente voláteis". EFE
domingo, 6 de julho de 2008
G8 quer soluções para combater crise alimentar
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Além dos líderes dos Estados Unidos, Canadá, Reino Unido, Alemanha, França, Itália, Japão e Rússia, que compõe o G8, estarão ainda presentes na região montanhosa do lago japonês Toya Hollaido representantes da União Europeia e de 14 países convidados.
A liderar a agenda da reunião está a forma como os países industrializados vão lutar contra a crise alimentar, que pode vir a ter repercussões na segurança mundial.
A chanceler alemã, Angela Merkel, declarou ontem ao diário germânico Tagesspiegel Am. Sonntag que as medidas em discussão visam "aliviar a curto prazo a crise alimentar e obedecerão a uma estratégia de longo prazo para aumentar a produção agrícola mundial". Merkel criou, em finais de Abril, um grupo de trabalho interministerial, encarregado de analisar as causas e as consequências do aumento dos preços dos produtos alimentares e de propor soluções para a crise.
Na segunda-feira passada, a chanceler alemã enviou aos seus colegas do G8 um documento de seis páginas, contendo ideias para debate. Segundo o semanário alemão Der Spiegel, na sua edição da próxima segunda-feira, Angela Merkel adverte para os efeitos devastadores que uma crise alimentar mundial de longa duração poderia ter. "Tal crise poderá "pôr em perigo a democracia, desestabilizar estados e criar problemas para a segurança internacional", refere ainda a revista, citando o mesmo documento.
Esta comissão recomenda, diz o semanário, "um aumento da produtividade agrícola" nos países em desenvolvimento, o "abastecimento rápido de certas regiões em sementes, adubos e material agrícola", assim como o "levantamento imediato de restrições às exportações". Neste documento, a Alemanha anuncia que vai disponibilizar 750 milhões de dólares este ano para ajuda alimentar aos países mais pobres.
Por seu lado, também os países do G8, no seu conjunto, vão criar durante esta cimeira, um grupo de trabalho para lutar contra a crise alimentar mundial, como noticiou o diário japonês Yomiuri Shimbun. Segundo o jornal, esse grupo de trabalho examinará a possibilidade de suprimir certas restrições às exportações, que impedem os países mais necessitados de aceder aos excedentes alimentares dos países mais ricos.
À margem destes cimeiras, as manifestações são uma constante. Cinco milhares de manifestantes ligados a organizações não governamentais, sindicatos e grupos de activistas desfilaram ontem nas ruas de Sapporo, no Japão, protestando contra esta reunião, com críticas sobre as desigualdades económicas no mundo.
Fonte: AFP